Worst phenomenon ever recorded? Agency issues warning about possible ‘Super El Niño’

Forecasts from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology indicate that the phenomenon El Niño in 2023 it could become the worst on record. The international agency issued an alert on the 6th, calling the phenomenon “Super El Niño”.

The Bureau explains that El Niño causes changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean that affect climate on a global scale.

During this phenomenon, drier weather and considerably higher than normal temperatures are expected.

According to the forecast, strong trade winds (constant, moist gusts) from the east to the southeast along the equator cause ocean currents in the eastern Pacific to bring deeper waters to the surface, keeping it essentially cold.

In October, experts believe there will be an increase of around 3 °C in the temperature of the Pacific Ocean equatorial, and in November, an increase of 3.2°C.

El Niño in Brazil

Because of all these changes, waters in the western equatorial Pacific warm up more effectively under the influence of the tropical sun, where South America (including Brazil) is located.

Under “normal” conditions, the western tropical Pacific is 8°C to 10°C warmer than the eastern tropical Pacific. While areas to the north and northeast have ocean surfaces typically between 28°C and 30°C, in South America, the Pacific Ocean is around 20°C.

These warmer areas of the ocean, including the South Americaare associated with higher rainfall rates, according to forecasts.

In Brazil, Super El Niño could result in droughts, heavy rains and other extreme weather events across the country. Above-average rainfall and rising temperatures are expected in the South and Central-West regions.

In the Southeast region, the forecast is for an increase only in temperatureswithout changing the characteristics of the station much.

On the other hand, in the North and Northeast, a sudden decrease in rainfall is expected, leading to severe droughts and increasing the risk of forest fires.