We are not even close to reaching maximum human lifespan, study indicates

One of the great mysteries of the universe is human life. While some die at a young age, others live for a century. In the last 25 years, the longest lifespan known to science was 122 years, lived by Jeanne Louise Calment, who died in 1997.

However, scholars say humanity is about to witness a new record, estimated to be 150 years away. David McCarthy, assistant professor of risk management and insurance at the University of Georgia, told Live Science:

“This has led people to argue that maximum lifespan has been reached.”

McCarthy has developed a new study with colleagues in the field. The scientists claim to have discovered factors that have shown that Jean Louise’s longevity record will be broken within the next forty years.

But some disagree with the study’s conclusions, experts told Live Science. In another study published on March 29 in the journal PLOS Onescientists analyzed mortality data from millions of people in nineteen countries who were born between 1700 and the end of 1900.

The researchers created a model to calculate how mortality rates among people aged 50 to 100 differed among individuals with a variety of birth years.

“In this model, mortality rates are assumed to increase exponentially after age 50 and then plateau at extremely advanced ages”says McCart.

“In most of the countries we looked at, we project that the maximum age will increase dramatically in the future […] This will cause longevity records to be broken for the next 40 years or more.”he concludes.

The model assumes that the oldest Japanese woman born in 1919 has a 50% chance of living to the age of 122. The oldest Japanese woman born in 1940 has a 50% chance of living past the age of 130.

Determining factor is not in the study

The study, however, does not take into account determining factors for old age, such as the aging of cells over the years and how this affects people’s longevity.

“While we find this demographic analysis interesting, we have long believed that addressing basic questions about whether, when, and how aging is halted is best addressed by research with large groups of animals kept in laboratory conditions. stable”, they said to Live Science Michael Rose and Laurence Müller, professors at the University of California, Irvine, who were not involved in the study.

Stuart Jay Olshanky, a professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of Illinois at Chicago who was also not involved in the research, said:

“Life span is a biological phenomenon, not a mathematical one.”

McCarthy acknowledges the limitations of his study and claims that the simple model fits historical mortality data.