Last Wednesday (8), the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the United States reported that the El Niño is back. The climate phenomenon returns after three years of the La Niña pattern, bringing the possibility of extreme weather conditions at the end of the year.
In May, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) had announced that El Niño was expected to develop in 2023. Now, the forecast appears to be confirmed.
What is the El Niño phenomenon?
The phenomenon is a natural atmospheric-oceanic pattern that originates in the Pacific Ocean, close to the Equator, and directly affects the climate around the world.
It is characterized by significant changes in sea water temperature: normally, warm water is limited to the Western Pacific by winds that blow from east to west, directed towards Indonesia and Australia.
However, with El Niño underway, the winds decrease and often reverse direction, allowing warmer water to spread eastwards, potentially reaching South America.
To this day, meteorologists are still searching for an explanation as to why the phenomenon occurs, however, they clarify that the low acceleration of the winds can last for weeks or even months.
Like many other weather patterns, El Niño can occur every two to seven years, with an intensity that is usually not predetermined. The waters of the East Pacific can be up to 4°C warmer than normal during its passage.
Learn about the effects for Brazil
Brazil is one of the countries that is not immune to El Niño. According to INPE (Center for Weather Forecasting) and CPTEC (Climate Studies of the National Institute for Space Research), during the phenomenon, temperatures can rise and cause drought in parts of the North and Northeast regions of the country. On the other hand, in some parts of the South, the phenomenon usually causes excessive rainfall.
In June, the equatorial Pacific Ocean has a high chance of having above-average temperatures, especially near South America, according to Climatempo.
Photo: Alina Souza/CP Memory
“El Niño is expected to set in from July, and its influence will be felt from August, with increased rainfall in the South, decreased rainfall in the far North and rising temperatures, which tend to be above average in the middle of the North of the country from July onwards.”reports Climatempo.
According to the agency, “it is estimated that it will be an El Niño of moderate intensity during this period”.
The advance of the South Atlantic Subtropical High (ASAS) through the Southeast favors drier periods between the central areas and part of the Southeast of the country, typically observed during autumn.
Cold fronts and instability formations can also be found further south in Brazil, in Mato Grosso do Sul, in the Center-West and in São Paulo, in the Southeast region.
Furthermore, Climatempo adds that the coastal El Niño should affect the intensification of rainfall in parts of southern Brazil, Mato Grosso do Sul and São Paulo.
Looking at it from an economic perspective, the costs generated by the climate phenomenon reach approximately US$ 3.4 trillion, something around R$ 16.8 trillion, according to studies carried out by scientist Christopher Callahan.
The global economy is expected to suffer a loss of US$3 trillion (R$14.8 trillion) by 2029.
“We can say with certainty that societies and economies don’t just take a hit and bounce back. In the tropics and places that experience El Niño effects, you get a persistent signature during which growth is slowed for at least five years.”says Christopher Callahan.
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