The year 2024 could exceed the scorching expectations of 2023, the UN has warned, drawing attention to a possible heat record.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), linked to UNindicated that the warming trend, driven by El Niño, could generate an increase in global temperature.
This reignites the debate about the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
2024 could be even hotter than 2023
Consequences of El Niño could make 2024 hotter than 2023 – Image: VladisChern/Shutterstock.com/Reproduction
The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimates a 33% probability of 2024 surpassing 2023 in heat worldwide.
This alarming prognosis raises concerns about the continued impacts of El Niño, predicted to peak this year.
The head of the WMO, Celeste Saulo, highlighted that the El Niño it tends to raise global temperatures, signaling that 2024 could be a warmer year.
El Niño and its consequences on the Earth’s climate
The dominant influence of El Niño in 2023 contributed to a scenario of extremes. From Brazil to Antarctica, the effects were varied, from torrential rains in South America to historic heat waves in Rio de Janeiro.
The combination of El Niño and climate change resulted in an accelerated rise in temperatures, defying the predictions of climate models.
Brazil felt the effects of El Niño intensely in 2023, with climate imbalances in different regions.
From drought in the North to storms in the South, to extreme heat waves in several states, the country has experienced a diverse range of unusual weather events.
With the El Niño transition expected in April, uncertainty about developments in 2024 remains, while some models suggest neutrality and others point to the possibility of La Niña.
Are we heading towards unprecedented warming?
Met Office forecast leader Nick Dunstone points out that the ongoing trend of global warming and El Niño indicate the chances of there being two consecutive years of temperature records.
The prediction of one year temporarily exceeding 1.5°C, the limit of the Paris Agreement, sets a new milestone in climate history.
Uncertainty persists about the El Niño transition, but numerical models point to a 60% probability of transition to neutrality in the second half of 2024, according to NOAA.
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