The Brazilian climate scenario is about to undergo a change, going from the scorching heat of El Niño for the freshness of La Niña.
The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicts that El Niño, responsible for recent climate extremes, will persist until March or, at the latest, until April.
However, the waters will begin to cool between March and May, giving way to the likely neutrality phase in June, with a 73% chance.
What are these phenomena and how do they influence the Brazilian climate?
Both phenomena affect the oceans – Image: Giovanna Gomes/Ed. Globe/Reproduction
El Niño
El Niño, known for warming the waters of the Pacific Ocean, has been the recent climate protagonist in Brazil.
Responsible for heat waves, extreme droughts in the North and Northeast and floods in the South, the meteorological phenomenon has left its mark.
MetSul meteorologists indicate that the transition process to neutrality will be gradual, impacting our daily lives as the ocean adjusts.
La Nina
La Niña, in turn, is characterized by the cooling of the waters of the Pacific Oceanbringing with it significant changes in the climate pattern.
According to experts, this climate transition promises extremes such as intense rain, windstorms, episodes of snow and frost between winter and spring.
Andrea Ramos, meteorologist at the National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet), highlights to Metrópolis that La Niña can also cause lower temperatures in the Central-West Region, even recalling the cold record in the Federal District registered in 2022.
In an interview with Globo Rural, Estael Sias, MetSul meteorologist, warns of the impacts of the turn of La Niña.
He points out that rapid climate change will bring with it weather extremes, such as heavy rain, windstorms and possible snow events.
The expert also emphasizes that this transition will not happen overnight, requiring time for the ocean to influence the atmosphere and change our daily lives.
The trajectory of La Niña in recent years
The last episode of La Niña, ending in March 2023, lasted three years and severely impacted the south of Brazil.
Severe droughts resulted in consecutive crop failures, leaving a lasting mark on the region.
The La Niña phenomenon is known for making the climate drier and colder in the South, while the Southeast and Midwest experience thermal amplitudes, hot afternoons and colder nights.
Andrea Malheiros, meteorologist at Inmet, highlights to Correio Braziliense that La Niña should start to show its effects from October.
However, the most significant impacts on South America they will be felt in the spring, especially in the months of October and November.
In these phases, the tendency is towards drought in southern Brazil, relieved in the summer, when rainfall tends to normal.
