Researchers from Ahi Evran and Middle East Technical Universities in Turkey have analyzed what will happen to the world’s climate in the coming years. More precisely, at the turn of the century.
And what’s more, what will happen to climate zones? We don’t have to look far to see that the environment is changing.
Anyone who has ever lived or has family members who live off the land and monitored climate changes for their subsistence has certainly heard them say at some point that “it didn’t used to be this hot” or “It didn’t usually rain at this time of year”; and even “It rained more at that time”.
Results of the research on the climate in the world
Climate change is increasingly evident, the study carried out by researchers in Turkey indicates that, by 2100, almost half of the planet will enter new climate zones.
The research, published in the journal Earth’s Future, simulated how changes in temperature and rainfall volume could modify the world’s climate in the coming years, in certain regions.
These changes can be so severe that climates in regions of the world become completely different from what they were in observations made in the 1880s, the period in which the first climate maps were produced.
Köppen–Geiger models
To make projections of changes, researchers used climate models suggested by Köppen-Geiger. This model was responsible for defining the five major climate zones – tropical, arid, temperate, continental and polar – considering temperature, precipitation and seasons.
Geroge Mason, who led the team of researchers, pointed out that by the end of the century, around 38% to 40% of the global land area could be in a different climate zone.
When climate models that are more sensitive to climate change and global warming are applied, this percentage rises to 50%.
The climate in the world in the coming years
The research projections estimate that global warming will change the world’s climate in the coming years as follows: tropical climates will increase from 23% to 25% of the global land area, and arid zones will increase from 31% to 34%.
These changes can affect the food production system and cause zoonoses, such as dengue, to spread to new areas.
In an excerpt from the study, the researchers warn that the most extensive possible changes were observed in North America, Europe and Oceania. In the first two, the changes are expected to affect around 66% to 89% of the territories, which will have different climate zones.
In continental regions, such as Africa, temperatures will rise even further. This will lead to more frequent weather events, which will occur within the limits of current zones.
The article warns that some changes can already be seen in polar climate regions, which have already lost almost 2% of their global territory between 1901 and 1930.
In order for these changes to be contained, carbon emissions must be reduced, slowing down global warming.
