In 2020, Australian philosopher Toby Ord provoked global concern with the publication of his book “O Precipício”.
In the work, Ord argues that humanity faces the chances of an “existential catastrophe” occurring this century, estimating these chances as one in six.
The role of probability
Before we dive into the probabilities of human extinction, it is essential to understand the concept of probability in its entirety.
The traditional approach, known as frequentist probability, is based on games of chance such as cards and dice.
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Frequentists use past observations, such as the probability of obtaining a given outcome in an event, to make their estimates.
Therefore, when a weather forecast tells us that the probability of rain is one in six (or 17%), this is not a mere exercise in guesswork, but rather an analysis of the accuracy of these forecasts over time.
However, applying this traditional approach to the probability of extinction extinction is a challenge, as extinction events are unique and non-repetitive. Once they occur, there is no room for repetition.
Researchers, like Toby Ord, approach this question by drawing parallels with other historical events that can offer relevant information.
For example, to estimate the likelihood of an asteroid impact causing extinction on Earth, scientists examine historical records of similar impacts on the Moon.
An alternative perspective for understanding probability is Bayesianism, named after the English statistician Thomas Bayes.
This approach focuses less on the events themselves and more on what we know and believe about them.
Bayesian supporters approach probabilities as a categorization system, highlighting the relative probability of different outcomes.
Understanding the concept of probability varies between individuals and resistance to this concept is a reality. In a world where risk perception is differentiated, an estimate like “one in six” may not require absolute precision.
In this scenario, statistics have been fundamental in discussions about our futureespecially in light of the impacts of climate change and threats from nuclear weapons.
However, interpreting these numbers depends on perspective, as “one in a hundred” may seem insignificant, while “one in three” may cause panic.
In our discussions about issues crucial to humanity’s survival, it is critical that the responsible and informed use of probability is the norm.
This ensures an accurate understanding of the dangers we currently face.
Reflecting on the concept of probability invites us to more accurately assess the threats that loom over us and to seek solutions for a safer future.